For four years, motor vehicle thefts climbed relentlessly, hitting over 1 million reported incidents in 2022 alone, according to the National Insurance Crime Bureau. Cities like Chicago, Memphis, and Denver saw theft rates soar. Illinois suffered a staggering 35% increase that year. It seemed like the trend would never end. Then, in 2024, the numbers did something surprising: they fell. Car thefts didn’t just plateau—they plummeted.

Jeff Asher, a renowned crime analyst and co-founder of AH Datalytics, highlighted the decline in a recent PBS interview. He even called it a “huge decline,” marking the first meaningful reversal after years of increases. So, what changed?

To understand this shift, it’s crucial to look at the broader context. During the pandemic, motor vehicle theft skyrocketed. From 2019 to 2022, theft rates rose by 29%, according to FBI data. Cars parked at or near victims’ homes became prime targets, with 65% of vehicles stolen from residential areas in 2020—a 20% jump from pre-pandemic levels. Social unrest, economic uncertainty, and overburdened police departments likely contributed to the chaos.

But 2024’s data tells a different story. According to Jeff Asher, “We’re seeing significant declines in burglary, theft, and a huge decline in motor vehicle theft after four years of increases.” Preliminary numbers show car thefts dropped by 20% in some cities. Even cities previously plagued by high motor vehicle theft rates, like Memphis, showed improvement.

One reason for the decline could be a return to normalcy. Asher speculated, “Everyday life getting back to normal” has eased pandemic-driven stressors that once fueled crime spikes. Additionally, law enforcement agencies have ramped up the use of tools and strategies to combat auto theft. High-profile arrests of car theft rings and public awareness campaigns about vulnerabilities in certain vehicles—especially older Kia and Hyundai models—have likely deterred some would-be thieves.

However, not all crime trends reflect this progress. As Asher pointed out, some outliers still exist, with certain cities seeing plateaus or even upticks in other violent crimes. Still, the overarching national data is clear: after years of bad news, the numbers are finally moving in the right direction.

Crime is rarely an isolated phenomenon, and 2024’s data underscores this interconnectedness. Other crime rats are also dropping. Chicago, long in the spotlight for its crime challenges, also saw homicides hit their lowest levels since 2019. San Francisco reported homicides dropping by a third. Declines in theft, burglary, and violent crime appear to be moving in tandem.

Asher observed, “We’re seeing significant declines… after four years of increases.” Whether this positive trend continues will depend on a mix of policing efforts, community interventions, and economic stability. For now, cities are breathing a little easier, and drivers are hoping their cars will stay where they belong—safe and sound at home.